U.S. Retail Stocks Gain on Upbeat Sales Data: Investment Idea of the Day

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North American equity indices jumped Monday rebounding after a dismal week prompted by an upbeat in American retail sales. The U.S. Commerce Department reported that March 2014 retail and food services sales were $433.9 billion, 1.1% higher than last month – the largest gain since September 2012, and 3.8% higher than in March 2013. Total sales during the first quarter of 2014 (Jan- Mar) grew 2.5% over the same period last year. The U.S. dollar also inched higher after strong retail sales data signalled a brighter outlook for the U.S. economy. Auto sales climbed 3.1% while sales at general merchandise stores increased 1.9%. In addition to increased spending at department stores and car dealers, consumers also spent more at furniture, building-supply and sporting-goods outlets. Internet sales also picked up and Americans dined out more, figures showed.

Ubika Research has shortlisted 11 U.S. retail stocks which have registered significant growth in sales, earnings and same store sales during 2013 and are estimated to grow further in 2014 as per consensus data compiled by Bloomberg. We note that these stocks have recorded decent operating margins during 2013 and provide high return on equity (ROE). These stocks recorded gains during yesterday’s trading session after retail sales data was announced. Additionally, some of these stocks have recorded gains during the past three months with average traded volume in excess of 100,000.

Company Name

Exchange

Ticker

Market Cap
($MM)

Last Price

Average Volume
(3-Month)

Price Change
(3-Month)

Price Change
(1-Day)

Sales Growth
(2013)

Sales Growth
(2014E)

EPS Growth
(2013)

EPS Growth
(2014E)

Operating Margin

Same Store Sales

Return On Equity

The Fresh Market Inc

NASDAQ

TFM

1.7

35.87

1,050,886

-10.1%

3.1%

20.0%

15.0%

24.3%

12.9%

7.7%

5.7%

39.5%

Hibbett Sports Inc

NASDAQ

HIBB

1.4

52.77

364,757

-16.9%

0.9%

11.7%

9.1%

26.9%

7.8%

14.2%

6.9%

32.8%

PriceSmart Inc

NASDAQ

PSMT

2.8

94.35

176,025

-2.4%

1.8%

12.5%

12.0%

24.1%

13.1%

5.6%

9.0%

18.3%

Penske Automotive Group Inc

NYSE

PAG

3.8

42.06

261,110

-3.1%

1.1%

12.4%

10.4%

28.4%

14.8%

3.0%

10.9%

17.4%

Chico’s FAS Inc

NYSE

CHS

2.4

15.69

2,491,834

-11.7%

0.6%

17.5%

5.7%

32.9%

10.7%

11.3%

7.2%

17.1%

Cabela’s Inc

NYSE

CAB

4.5

64.39

1,083,582

-7.8%

0.3%

15.6%

8.8%

28.2%

8.8%

10.2%

3.9%

15.0%

Genesco Inc

NYSE

GCO

1.8

75.26

187,098

5.3%

0.6%

13.6%

7.7%

34.3%

7.5%

7.2%

3.0%

14.7%

Vitamin Shoppe Inc

NYSE

VSI

1.4

46.10

695,579

-5.4%

2.4%

14.4%

9.3%

7.8%

6.1%

10.1%

3.5%

13.6%

Group 1 Automotive Inc

NYSE

GPI

1.5

62.50

301,879

-0.6%

2.6%

19.3%

8.9%

7.5%

11.8%

3.1%

6.2%

11.2%

Stage Stores Inc

NYSE

SSI

0.7

21.82

511,719

10.1%

0.6%

8.9%

1.3%

29.0%

14.8%

3.9%

5.7%

8.7%

MarineMax Inc

NYSE

HZO

0.4

15.29

157,970

-2.8%

1.5%

11.4%

10.2%

1200.0%

312.9%

3.1%

11.0%

7.1%

Source: Bloomberg

Company Description:

The Fresh Market Inc (NASDAQ: TFM)
The Fresh Market, Inc. retails food. The company operates a chain of stores that retail fresh premium perishable food items. Fresh Market operates in the southeastern, midwestern and Mid-Atlantic States.

Hibbett Sports Inc (NASDAQ: HIBB)
Hibbett Sports Inc. operates a chain of sporting goods stores in the southeastern United States. The stores sell athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment.

PriceSmart Inc (NASDAQ: PSMT)
PriceSmart, Inc. owns and manages international merchandising businesses. The company licenses and owns membership stores using the trade name PriceSmart and PriceCostco. PriceSmart’s international market consists of Latin America and Asia. The company also operates domestic merchandising programs, including its Auto Referral Program and its Travel Program.

Penske Automotive Group Inc (NYSE: PAG)
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. operates franchised automobile dealerships. The company’s franchises are located throughout the United States, Puerto Rico and the United Kingdom. Penske Automotive sells new and used vehicles as well as offers maintenance and repair services on all brands it represents.

Chico’s FAS Inc (NYSE: CHS)
Chico’s FAS, Inc. sells private label women’s casual clothing and related accessories. The company’s clothing includes tops, pants, shorts, skirts, and dresses. Chico’s owns and operates stores throughout the United States.

Cabela’s Inc (NYSE: CAB)
Cabela’s Incorporated retails hunting, fishing, camping, and outdoor sports products and apparel. The company markets its products through its retail stores, website, and catalog. Cabela’s retail stores also offer in-house clinics associated with hunting, fishing, and camping.

Genesco Inc (NYSE: GCO)
Genesco Inc. retails branded footwear, licensed and branded headwear, and wholesales branded footwear. The company operates stores throughout the United States, Puerto Rico, and Canada.

Vitamin Shoppe Inc (NYSE: VSI)
Vitamin Shoppe, Inc., sells vitamins, minerals, herbs, supplements, sports nutrition and health and wellness products. The company sells their products through their retail shops, internet and catalog operations.

Group 1 Automotive Inc (NYSE: GPI)
Group 1 Automotive, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates automobile dealerships. The company sells new and used cars and light trucks, provides maintenance and repair services, and sells replacement parts. The company also arranges related financing, insurance, and extended service contracts. Group 1 operates in Florida, Georgia, Colorado, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas.

Stage Stores Inc (NYSE: SSI)
Stage Stores, Inc. operates retail stores throughout the United States.. The company’s stores sell products that include apparel, accessories, cosmetics, and footwear for the entire family.

MarineMax Inc (NYSE: HZO)
MarineMax, Inc. retails recreational boats. The company sells new and used boats, parts and accessories, as well as offers repair services. MarineMax serves customers throughout the United States.

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